OBJECTIVE The purpose of our study was to estimate the number of women needed to screen (NNS) to prevent one breast cancer death and the number needed to screen per life-year gained (NNS/LYG) with annual or biennial screening mammography and to compare NNS to the number needed to invite (NNI) to a screening trial to prevent one breast cancer death. MATERIALS AND METHODS Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) modeling results commissioned by the United States Preventive Services Task Force (USPSTF) for their 2009 update of breast cancer screening recommendations were used to estimate NNS and NNS/LYG with annual or biennial screening mammography. NNS values were compared with NNI as reported by USPSTF, which used the CISNET results to aid their 2009 recommendation of starting age and screening interval. RESULTS For women between the ages of 40 and 49 years undergoing annual screening mammography, CISNET modeling results estimate an NNS of 746, 39% of the NNI of 1904 estimated by USPSTF on the basis of randomized controlled trial (RCT) data. The NNS based on CISNET results for women between 50 and 59 years is 351 (26% of the NNI of 1339 estimated by USPSTF from RCT data), for women between 60 and 69 years is 233 (62% of the NNI of 377 estimated by USPSTF from RCT data), and for women between 70 and 79 years is 377. Annual screening of women between 40 and 84 years yields an NNS of 84 and an NNS/LYG of 5.3. Biennial screening of women ages 50-74 yields an NNS of 144 and an NNS/LYG of 9.1. CONCLUSION The NNS based on CISNET modeling results is much smaller than the NNI based on RCT data. Eighty-four women need to be screened annually between 40 and 84 years to save one life from breast cancer and 5.3 need to be screened annually to gain 1 life-year from breast cancer.

BACKGROUND AND METHODS: National surveillance data show recent, marked reductions in morbidity and mortality associated with the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS). To evaluate these declines, we analyzed data on 1255 patients, each of whom had at least one CD4+ count below 100 cells per cubic millimeter, who were seen at nine clinics specializing in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection in eight U.S. cities from January 1994 through June 1997. RESULTS: Mortality among the patients declined from 29.4 per 100 person-years in the first quarter of 1995 to 8.8 per 100 in the second quarter of 1997. There were reductions in mortality regardless of sex, race, age, and risk factors for transmission of HIV. The incidence of any of three major opportunistic infections (Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia, Mycobacterium avium complex disease, and cytomegalovirus retinitis) declined from 21.9 per 100 person-years in 1994 to 3.7 per 100 person-years by mid-1997. In a failure-rate model, increases in the intensity of antiretroviral therapy (classified as none, monotherapy, combination therapy without a protease inhibitor, and combination therapy with a protease inhibitor) were associated with stepwise reductions in morbidity and mortality. Combination antiretroviral therapy was associated with the most benefit; the inclusion of protease inhibitors in such regimens conferred additional benefit. Patients with private insurance were more often prescribed protease inhibitors and had lower mortality rates than those insured by Medicare or Medicaid. CONCLUSIONS: The recent declines in morbidity and mortality due to AIDS are attributable to the use of more intensive antiretroviral therapies.

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the number of new cancer cases and deaths expected in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival based on incidence data from the National Cancer Institute and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Incidence and death rates are age-standardized to the 2000 US standard million population. A total of 1,372,910 new cancer cases and 570,280 deaths are expected in the United States in 2005. When deaths are aggregated by age, cancer has surpassed heart disease as the leading cause of death for persons younger than 85 since 1999. When adjusted to delayed reporting, cancer incidence rates stabilized in men from 1995 through 2001 but continued to increase by 0.3% per year from 1987 through 2001 in women. The death rate from all cancers combined has decreased by 1.5% per year since 1993 among men and by 0.8% per year since 1992 among women. The mortality rate has also continued to decrease from the three most common cancer sites in men (lung and bronchus, colon and rectum, and prostate) and from breast and colorectal cancers in women. Lung cancer mortality among women has leveled off after increasing for many decades. In analyses by race and ethnicity, African American men and women have 40% and 20% higher death rates from all cancers combined than White men and women, respectively. Cancer incidence and death rates are lower in other racial and ethnic groups than in Whites and African Americans for all sites combined and for the four major cancer sites. However, these groups generally have higher rates for stomach, liver, and cervical cancers than Whites. Furthermore, minority populations are more likely to be diagnosed with advanced stage disease than are Whites. Progress in reducing the burden of suffering and death from cancer can be accelerated by applying existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population.

CONTEXT: The prevalence of obesity and overweight increased in the United States between 1978 and 1991. More recent reports have suggested continued increases but are based on self-reported data. OBJECTIVE: To examine trends and prevalences of overweight (body mass index [BMI]> or = 25) and obesity (BMI > or = 30), using measured height and weight data. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Survey of 4115 adult men and women conducted in 1999 and 2000 as part of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), a nationally representative sample of the US population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Age-adjusted prevalence of overweight, obesity, and extreme obesity compared with prior surveys, and sex-, age-, and race/ethnicity-specific estimates. RESULTS: The age-adjusted prevalence of obesity was 30.5% in 1999-2000 compared with 22.9% in NHANES III (1988-1994; P<.001). The prevalence of overweight also increased during this period from 55.9% to 64.5%(P<.001). Extreme obesity (BMI > or = 40) also increased significantly in the population, from 2.9% to 4.7%(P =.002). Although not all changes were statistically significant, increases occurred for both men and women in all age groups and for non-Hispanic whites, non-Hispanic blacks, and Mexican Americans. Racial/ethnic groups did not differ significantly in the prevalence of obesity or overweight for men. Among women, obesity and overweight prevalences were highest among non-Hispanic black women. More than half of non-Hispanic black women aged 40 years or older were obese and more than 80% were overweight. CONCLUSIONS: The increases in the prevalences of obesity and overweight previously observed continued in 1999-2000. The potential health benefits from reduction in overweight and obesity are of considerable public health importance.

Regression methods were used to select and score 12 items from the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) to reproduce the Physical Component Summary and Mental Component Summary scales in the general US population (n=2,333). The resulting 12-item short-form (SF-12) achieved multiple R squares of 0.911 and 0.918 in predictions of the SF-36 Physical Component Summary and SF-36 Mental Component Summary scores, respectively. Scoring algorithms from the general population used to score 12-item versions of the two components (Physical Components Summary and Mental Component Summary) achieved R squares of 0.905 with the SF-36 Physical Component Summary and 0.938 with SF-36 Mental Component Summary when cross-validated in the Medical Outcomes Study. Test-retest (2-week)correlations of 0.89 and 0.76 were observed for the 12-item Physical Component Summary and the 12-item Mental Component Summary, respectively, in the general US population (n=232). Twenty cross-sectional and longitudinal tests of empirical validity previously published for the 36-item short-form scales and summary measures were replicated for the 12-item Physical Component Summary and the 12-item Mental Component Summary, including comparisons between patient groups known to differ or to change in terms of the presence and seriousness of physical and mental conditions, acute symptoms, age and aging, self-reported 1-year changes in health, and recovery for depression. In 14 validity tests involving physical criteria, relative validity estimates for the 12-item Physical Component Summary ranged from 0.43 to 0.93 (median=0.67) in comparison with the best 36-item short-form scale. Relative validity estimates for the 12-item Mental Component Summary in 6 tests involving mental criteria ranged from 0.60 to 107 (median=0.97) in relation to the best 36-item short-form scale. Average scores for the 2 summary measures, and those for most scales in the 8-scale profile based on the 12-item short-form, closely mirrored those for the 36-item short-form, although standard errors were nearly always larger for the 12-item short-form.

The Surveillance Research Program of the American Cancer Society's Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance reports its 32nd annual compilation of cancer incidence, mortality, and survival data for the United States and around the world.

The Surveillance Research Program of the American Cancer Society's Department of Epidemiology and Surveillance Research reports its annual compilation of estimated cancer incidence, mortality, and survival data for the United States in the year 2000. After 70 years of increases, the recorded number of total cancer deaths among men in the US declined for the first time from 1996 to 1997. This decrease in overall male mortality is the result of recent down-turns in lung and bronchus cancer deaths, prostate cancer deaths, and colon and rectum cancer deaths. Despite decreasing numbers of deaths from female breast cancer and colon and rectum cancer, mortality associated with lung and bronchus cancer among women continues to increase. Lung cancer is expected to account for 25% of all female cancer deaths in 2000. This report also includes a summary of global cancer mortality rates using data from the World Health Organization.

BACKGROUND: Because many persons with chronic hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection are asymptomatic, population-based serologic studies are needed to estimate the prevalence of the infection and to develop and evaluate prevention efforts. METHODS: We performed tests for antibody to HCV (anti-HCV) on serum samples from 21,241 persons six years old or older who participated in the third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey, conducted during 1988 through 1994. We determined the prevalence of HCV RNA by means of nucleic acid amplification and the genotype by means of sequencing. RESULTS: The overall prevalence of anti-HCV was 1.8 percent, corresponding to an estimated 3.9 million persons nationwide (95 percent confidence interval, 3.1 million to 4.8 million) with HCV infection. Sixty-five percent of the persons with HCV infection were 30 to 49 years old. Seventy-four percent were positive for HCV RNA, indicating that an estimated 2.7 million persons in the United States (95 percent confidence interval, 2.4 million to 3.0 million) were chronically infected, of whom 73.7 percent were infected with genotype 1 (56.7 percent with genotype 1a, and 17.0 percent with genotype 1b). Among subjects 17 to 59 years of age, the strongest factors independently associated with HCV infection were illegal drug use and high-risk sexual behavior. Other factors independently associated with infection included poverty, having had 12 or fewer years of education, and having been divorced or separated. Neither sex nor racial-ethnic group was independently associated with HCV infection. CONCLUSIONS: In the United States, about 2.7 million persons are chronically infected with HCV. People who use illegal drugs or engage in high-risk sexual behavior account for most persons with HCV infection.

Every year the American Cancer Society estimates the number of new cancer cases and deaths expected in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data on cancer incidence, mortality, and survival, using National Cancer Institute (NCI) incidence and National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality data. Incidence and death rates are age adjusted to the 1970 US standard population. It is estimated that 1,284,900 new cases of cancer will be diagnosed and 555,500 people will die from cancer in the United States in the year 2002. From 1992 to 1998, cancer death rates declined in males and females, while cancer incidence rates decreased among males and increased slightly among females. Most notably, African-American men showed the largest decline for both incidence and mortality. Nevertheless, African Americans still carry the highest burden of cancer with later-stage cancer diagnosis and poorer survival compared with whites. Despite the continued decline in cancer death rates, the total number of recorded cancer deaths in the United States continues to increase slightly due to the aging and expanding population.