BACKGROUND: Annual biological rhythms are often depicted as predictably cyclic, but quantitative evaluations are few and rarely both cyclic and constant among years. In the monsoon tropics, the intense seasonality of rainfall frequently drives fluctuations in the populations of short-lived aquatic organisms. However, it is unclear how predictably assemblage composition will fluctuate because the intensity, onset and cessation of the wet season varies greatly among years. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Adult mosquitoes were sampled using EVS suction traps baited with carbon dioxide around swamplands adjacent to the city of Darwin in northern Australia. Eleven sites were sampled weekly for five years, and one site weekly for 24 years, the sample of c. 1.4 million mosquitoes yielding 63 species. Mosquito abundance, species richness and diversity fluctuated seasonally, species richness being highly predictable. Ordination of assemblage composition demonstrated striking annual cycles that varied little from year to year. The mosquito assemblage was temporally structured by a succession of species peaks in abundance. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: Ordination provided strong visual representation of annual rhythms in assemblage composition and the means to evaluate variability among years. Because most mosquitoes breed in shallow freshwater which fluctuates with rainfall, we did not anticipate such repeatability; we conclude that mosquito assemblage composition appears adapted to predictable elements of the rainfall.

Objectives To describe the epidemiology of Ross River virus (RRV) infection in the endemic Darwin region of tropical northern Australia and to develop a predictive model for RRV infections. Methods Analysis of laboratory confirmed cases of RRV infection between 01 January 1991 and 30 June 2006, together with climate, tidal and mosquito data collected weekly over the study period from 11 trap sites around Darwin. The epidemiology was described, correlations with various lag times were performed, followed by Poisson modelling to determine the best main effects model to predict RRV infection. Results Ross River virus infection was reported equally in males and females in 1256 people over the 15.5 years. Average annual incidence was 113/100 000 people. Infections peaked in the 30-34 age-group for both sexes. Correlations revealed strong associations between monthly RRV infections and climatic variables and also each of the four implicated mosquito species populations. Three models were created to identify the best predictors of RRV infections for the Darwin area. The climate-only model included total rainfall, average daily minimum temperature and maximum tide. This model explained 44.3% deviance. Using vector-only variables, the best fit was obtained with average monthly trap numbers of Culex annulirostris, Aedes phaecasiatus, Aedes notoscriptus and Aedes vigilax. This model explained 59.5% deviance. The best global model included rainfall, minimum temperature and three mosquito species. This model explained 63.5% deviance, and predicted disease accurately. Conclusions We have produced a model that accurately predicts RRV infections throughout the year, in the Darwin region. Our model also indicates that predicted anthropogenic global climatic changes may result in an increase in RRV infections. Further research needs to target other high-risk areas elsewhere in tropical Australia to ascertain the best local climatic and vector predictive RRV infection models for each region. This methodology can also be tested for assessing utility of predictive models for other mosquito-borne diseases endemic to locations outside Australia.

The National Notifiable Diseases Surveillance System (NNDSS) received 8,671 notifications of diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in Australia for the season 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2008. This represented a 39% increase from the annual average of 6,259 notifications for the previous 5 years. The alphaviruses, Barmah Forest and Ross River, accounted for 7,760 (89%) of these notifications during the 2007/08 season and represents an increase when compared with the mean of the past 5 seasons. Detection of flavivirus seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks across Australia provides an early warning of increased levels of Murray Valley encephalitis virus (MVEV) and Kunjin virus activity. Unusual MVEV activity in mosquitoes and sentinel chicken flocks was reported in southeast Australia during the 2007/08 season. Two cases of MVEV were reported, one each from New South Wales and Western Australia. There were 365 notifications of dengue virus infection that were acquired overseas compared with an average of 164 overseas-acquired dengue cases per annum reported to NNDSS over the 5 seasons from 2002/03 to 2006/07. There were no reports of locally-acquired malaria notified in Australia and 505 notified cases of overseas-acquired malaria during the season 2007/08. The exotic dengue vector Aedes aegypti was first detected on Groote Eylandt, Northern Territory in October 2006 and led to a 2-year Ae. aegypti eradication project. The successful eradication of Ae. aegypti from Groote Eylandt was officially announced in May 2008. The success of the program was due to the selection of appropriate chemicals that were successful in treating mosquito adults, larvae and egg infested receptacles. This annual report presents information on diseases transmitted by mosquitoes in Australia and notified to NNDSS.

Understanding the contributions of environmental variation and density feedbacks to changes in vector populations is essential for designing effective vector control. We analyzed monitoring datasets describing larval densities over 7 yr of the two dominant mosquito species, Aedes vigilax (Skuse) and Culex annulirostris (Skuse), of the greater Darwin area (Northern Territory, Australia). Using generalized linear and linear mixed-effects models, we tested hypotheses regarding the environmental determinants of spatio-temporal patterns in relative larval abundance in both species. The most important spatial drivers of Ae. vigilax and Cx. annulirostris larval densities were elevation and water presence. Ae. vigilax density correlates negatively with elevation, whereas there was a positive relationship between Cx. annulirostris density and elevation. These results show how larval habitats used by the saltwater-influenced breeder Ae. vigilax and the obligate freshwater breeder Cx. annulirostris are separated in a tidally influenced swamp. The models examining temporal drivers of larval density also identified this discrimination between freshwater and saltwater habitats. Ae. vigilax larval densities were positively related to maximum tide height and high tide frequency, whereas Cx. annulirostris larval densities were positively related to elevation and rainfall. Adult abundance in the previous month was the most important temporal driver of larval densities in both species, providing a clear dynamical link between the two main life phases in mosquito development. This study shows the importance of considering both spatial and temporal drivers, and intrinsic population dynamics, when planning vector control strategies to reduce larval density, adult population density, and disease transmission effectively.

The efficacy of maximum label rates of bifenthrin applications to dry tires to prevent Aedes mosquito breeding was investigated by field colonization and bioassay trials in shaded and unshaded locations. Aedes notoscriptus and Culex quinquefasciatus larvae were the most abundant species present in the field colonization trial. Colonization and survival of Ae. notoscriptus larvae to the late instar occurred significantly earlier in treated tires in shaded compared with unshaded locations (P = 0.002). Bifenthrin applications in shaded tires only prevented early instar survival for approximately 2.6 wk. Aedes notoscriptus late instars did not appear in the treated unshaded tires. Culex quinquefasciatus colonized treated tires from the 2nd wk in both shaded and unshaded treatments. In the bioassay, water from bifenthrin-treated tires, through extrapolation, was found to kill approximately 100% of late instar Ae. notoscriptus for only approximately 2.0-2.2 wk in shaded and unshaded tires. Under conditions optimal for Aedes breeding, such as shaded locations, high ambient temperatures, high relative humidity, and high amounts of leaf/organic matter accumulations, bifenthrin may not be effective as a larval control measure in tires for greater than 2.0-2.6 wk.

Dengue transmission in Australia is currently restricted to Queensland, where the vector mosquito Aedes aegypti is established. Locally acquired infections have been reported only from urban areas in the north-east of the state, where the vector is most abundant. Considerable attention has been drawn to the potential impact of climate change on dengue distribution within Australia, with projections for substantial rises in incidence and distribution associated with increasing temperatures. However, historical data show that much of Australia has previously sustained both the vector mosquito and dengue viruses. Although current vector distribution is restricted to Queensland, the area inhabited by A. aegypti is larger than the disease-transmission areas, and is not restricted by temperature (or vector-control programs); thus, it is unlikely that rising temperatures alone will bring increased vector or virus distribution. Factors likely to be important to dengue and vector distribution in the future include increased dengue activity in Asian and Pacific nations that would raise rates of virus importation by travellers, importation of vectors via international ports to regions without A. aegypti, higher rates of domestic collection and storage of water that would provide habitat in urban areas, and growing human populations in northern Australia. Past and recent successful control initiatives in Australia lend support to the idea that well resourced and functioning surveillance programs, and effective public health intervention capabilities, are essential to counter threats from dengue and other mosquito-borne diseases. Models projecting future activity of dengue (or other vector-borne disease) with climate change should carefully consider the local historical and contemporary data on the ecology and distribution of the vector and local virus transmission.

The growing demand for efficient and effective mosquito control requires a better understanding of vector population dynamics and how these are modified by endogenous and exogenous factors. A long-term (11-year) monitoring data set describing the relative abundance of the saltmarsh mosquito (Aedes vigilax) in the greater Darwin region, northern Australia, was examined in a suite of Gompertz-logistic (GL) models with and without hypothesized environmental correlates (high tide frequency, rainfall, and relative humidity). High tide frequency and humidity were hypothesized to influence saltmarsh mosquito abundance positively, and rainfall was hypothesized to correlate negatively by reducing the availability of suitable habitats (moist substrata) required by ovipositing adult female mosquitoes. We also examined whether environmental correlates explained the variance in seasonal carrying capacity (K) because environmental stochasticity is hypothesized to modify population growth rate (r), carrying capacity, or both. Current and lagged-time effects were tested by comparing alternative population dynamics models using three different information criteria (Akaike's Information Criterion [corrected; AIC(c)], Bayesian Information Criterion [BIC], and cross-validation [C-V]). The GL model with a two-month lag without environmental effects explained 31% of the deviance in population growth rate. This increased to > 70% under various model combinations of high tide frequency, rainfall, and relative humidity, of which, high tide frequency and rainfall had the highest contributions. Temporal variation in K was explained weakly by high tide frequency, and there was some evidence that the filling of depressions to reduce standing water availability has reduced Aedes vigilax carrying capacity over the study period. This study underscores the need to consider simultaneously both types of drivers (endogenous and exogenous) when predicting mosquito abundance and population growth patterns. This work also indicates that climate change, via continued increases in rainfall and higher expected frequencies and intensities of high tide events with sea level rise, will alter mosquito abundance trends in northern Australia.

In 2005, a widespread infestation of Aedes albopictus was discovered in the Torres Strait, the region between northern Australia and New Guinea. To contain this species, an eradication program was implemented in 2006. However, the progress of this program is impeded by the difficulty of morphologically separating Ae. albopictus larvae from the endemic species Aedes scutellaris. In this study, three real-time TaqMan polymerase chain reaction assays that target the ribosomal internal transcribed spacer 1 region were developed to rapidly identify Aedes aegypti, Ae. albopictus, and Ae. scutellaris from northern Australia. Individual eggs, larvae, pupae, and adults, as well as the species composition of mixed pools were accurately identified. The assay method was validated using 703 field-collected specimens from the Torres Strait.

The purpose of the present article is to present a review of the Ross River virus (RRV) and Barmah Forest virus (BFV) literature in relation to potential implications for future disease in tropical northern Australia. Ross River virus infection is the most common and most widespread arboviral disease in Australia, with an average of 4,800 national notifications annually. Of recent concern is the sudden rise in BFV infections; the 2005-2006 summer marked the largest BFV epidemic on record in Australia, with 1,895 notifications. Although not life-threatening, infection with either virus can cause arthritis, myalgia, and fatigue for 6 months or longer, resulting in substantial morbidity and economic impact. The geographic distribution of mosquito species and their seasonal activity is determined in large part by temperature and rainfall. Predictive models can be useful tools in providing early warning systems for epidemics of RRV and BFV infection. Various models have been developed to predict RRV outbreaks, but these appear to be mostly only regionally valid, being dependent on local ecological factors. Difficulties have arisen in developing useful models for the tropical northern parts of Australia, and to date no models have been developed for the Northern Territory. Only one model has been developed for predicting BFV infections using climate and tide variables. It is predicted that the exacerbation of current greenhouse conditions will result in longer periods of high mosquito activity in the tropical regions where RRV and BFV are already common. In addition, the endemic locations may expand further within temperate regions, and epidemics may become more frequent in those areas. Further development of predictive models should benefit public health planning by providing early warning systems of RRV and BFV infection outbreaks in different geographical locations.

Dengue outbreaks occur regularly in parts of northern Queensland, Australia, and there is concern that these outbreaks may spread with the introduction and range expansion of the two main vectors Aedes aegypti (L.) and Aedes albopictus (Skuse). Problems encountered in separating larvae of endemic and exotic container mosquito species resulted in the development of a polymerase chain reaction diagnostic procedure that uses a restriction enzyme to cut the internal transcribed spacer region 1 of the ribosomal DNA to separate Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus from a number of common local container mosquito species which can be used at any stage of the life cycle, including eggs up to 8 wk of age. Identification was possible using desiccated or alcohol-preserved specimens with a response time of < 24 h after receipt of the specimens.